Tag Archives: Jeremy Corbyn

Writing About Brexit: No Deal Brexit inevitable

This was first posted on Facebook on 29th August 2019, and repostd here with support from my Ko-Fi network.

Why I think we all need to start prepping for No Deal Brexit (or take up the prepping again if you were prepping for Brexit earlier in the year):

Boris Johnson has petitioned the Queen (who had no constitutional option but to agree) to prorogue Parliament – at earliest Monday 9th September, at latest Thursday 12th September.

The first day on which Corbyn could call for a no-confidence vote against Boris Johnson in Monday 2nd September, but he would be unlikely to do so as MPs are on their way back from their constituencies on Mondays. It is clear that the nascent Remain alliance – such as it is – isn’t yet together enough to have a coherent proposal which Tory MPs furious at Johnson may back even at the cost of losing their seats in the next General Election. But supposing they all do some hard thinking over the weekend (“Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully”) and conclude on a Plan – a caretaker-PM, a temporary government supported by 320 MPs (or whatever – enough to keep voting down Johnson’s Tories & a handful of diehard Brexiteers of other parties and none): and a process to stop no-deal Brexit.
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Writing About Brexit: Will There Be A No-Confidence Vote?

This was first posted on Facebook on 19th August 2019, and posted here with support from my Ko-Fi network.

At the moment, Boris Johnson has 311 MPs.

He also has, for now, 10 DUP MPs.

As a practical matter of fact, while officially a majority in the HoC is 326 (650/2 +1) in actuality it’s 322 ((650 – (7 Sinn Féin MPs + 1 Speaker)/2).
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Writing About Brexit: MP Numbers

EdinburghEye on Ko-FiThis was first posted on Facebook on 19th August 2019, with support from my Ko-Fi network.

At the moment, Boris Johnson has 311 MPs.

He also has, for now, 10 DUP MPs.

As a practical matter of fact, while officially a majority in the HoC is 326 (650/2 +1) in actuality it’s 322 ((650 – (7 Sinn Féin MPs + 1 Speaker)/2).
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A second EU referendum or Brexit?

Democracy Doesnt Take Weekends OffIn November 2017, I wrote that the idea of having a second EU referendum was a “superficially-attractive option with very high stakes”.

So it still is, and I stand by everything I wrote a year ago about the risks and dangers of a second referendum: including the risk that Leave might still win.

We do know a lot more now about how the Leave campaign unlawfully gathered data uon UK voters, how they used that data to target adverts on Facebook, and how they illegally overspent the limits set by the Electoral Commission.
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A general election or Brexit?

London Eye morphs into EU flag 1st January 2019Can the UK have a general election before we leave the EU on 29th March 2019?

The UK must have a general election again on Thursday 2nd June 2022.

The only way in which the UK can have a general election before then, is if either two-thirds of the MPs in the House of Commons vote for it (433 MPs, give or take a few Sinn Féin) or if the government loses two votes of confidence, a fortnight apart.

Current state of the parties in the Commons:
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Brexit, the four directions: nadir

The EUref results map

EU Referendum Results Map

Last week, I wrote and posted a series about the four possible directions the UK can go from where we are.

From a worm’s-eye perspective, the fourth option is least-worst: but the people most likely to face negative consequences for carrying it out and saving the UK from catastrophe or disaster, are the same MPs who would have to vote for it.

And regardless of how bad it is for us in the lower income bands, MPs are all in the top ten percent by income just from their salary: they have a generous expenses system, heavily subsidised food and drink at work, complete job security until the next general election, and a nice golden parachute even if they lose their seats then: they will not directly suffer from the economic disaster of soft Brexit, and though the catastrophe of hard Brexit might hit them, they’re better insulated against it than most.
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Brexit on BBC extra Question Time

Stop BrexitI was tweeting away on Brexit using the #bbcqt hashtag as usual on Thursday nights, when Will Harris, a freelance journalist making radio at @BBC5live, tweeted me asking for a DM. So I did… and not long after midnight, I was on BBC Radio Five live, giving whoever’s up after midnight five minutes of my views on Brexit. (If you want to listen to me, for the next 28 days you can find me on BBC iPlayer, Question Time Extra Time on Radio 5 Live, the 19/10/2017 show, 2 hours 26 minutes in.)

What I’d been asked to respond to was a question on the Dimbleby programme itself: is no deal better than a bad deal?
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