On 22nd May, Scotland goes to the polls: the results could change politics in Scotland forever.
Scotland has six MEPs. Two SNP, two Labour, a Tory and a LibDem. UKIP are hopeful – Farage is even having a rally in Edinburgh on Friday 9th May – that the drop in support for the Tories could give UKIP an elected seat in Scotland for the first time.
Brian Monteith writes in ConHome, of a worrying poll that puts UKIP support at 19%:
What it reminds us is that the Scottish electorate is just like the British electorate – despite wild claims to the contrary by the Scottish nationalists.
For the reality must surely be that UKIP is doing well despite any significant presence on the ground, it is pitching to the public through Nigel Farage and a nationwide campaign and it is having a very similar effect in Scotland to that seen in England.
The same poll that gives UKIP 18 per cent also gives Labour 25 per cent and the SNP 29 per cent – and it would be safe to assume that were the SNP not a factor then UKIP could take a significant slice of the SNP vote share, possibly in the region of a further 10 percent – giving it a very respectable 28 per cent. It should be remembered that a recent poll put Scottish support for leaving the EU at 37 per cent – higher than many polls put support for Scotland leaving the UK, and higher than the YouGov poll put support for the SNP itself.
The six who were elected in 2009 with a turnout of 28.5% are:
- SNP: Ian Hudghton, Alyn Smith: 29.1% – Greens/European Free Alliance
- Labour: David Martin, Catherine Stihler: 20.1% – Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament / Party of European Socialists
- Conservative: Struan Stevenson: 16.8% (retiring: Ian Duncan is the top-of-the-list candidate this year) – European Conservative and Reformists
- Liberal Democrat: George Lyon: 11.5% – Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe
The ECR group was formed by David Cameron in 2009 of right-wing Euro-sceptic MEPs: the UK Conservative MEPs are the largest single bloc, and the second-largest are the Polish Law and Justice party.
The Scottish Greens got 7.3% and did not get a seat.