Writing About Brexit: Boris Johnson Throws Away His Majority

This was first posted on Facebook on 4th September 2019, with support from my Ko-Fi network.

I’ve repeatedly said here and on Twitter I didn’t think it would happen, but I was wrong:

There is going to be a general election in 2019. (Possibly, maybe, conceivably delayed til spring 2020, but if so only because the UK generally doesn’t hold elections in December/January because of weather issues, especially for outlying constituencies.)

I say this not because Boris Johnson has declared he wants one, but because Johnson is now in a fatally weak position: he has 289 MPs, even with the DUP on board he has only 299: and Labour (247), SNP (35), LibDems (15), ChUK (5), Plaid Cymru (4), and Green (1): adds up to 307.

May Resign

Theresa May resigned today, 2 years, 10 months, and 12 days after she became leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

There will now be an election to choose our next Prime Minister.

Only the 313 Tory MPs get to vote, in what may well seem like an endless run-off until there are two candidates left standing. At that point, unless one candidate resigns, the Conservative Party membership get to vote to decide between the two. Their average age is 57, they are overwhelmingly Brexiters, and they like Boris Johnson.

The day after: Tory MPs look at the cliff-edge

There is one thing which I think is true of most MPs across party lines: they do, by and large, care about their constituents.

They do so as a matter of practical politics: even a constituent who is not eligible to vote in a Westminster Parliamentary election can influence the vote in one direction or another (“oh yes so-and-so, well, he’s Wrong Party but he’s a nice chap: my neighbours were in trouble, no fault of their own, and he was really helpful”)

But to be fair: MPs are human*, and even the poshest and most privileged MP, come face-to-face with human tragedy, as they may be required to do with their constituents, is likely to have some kind of human feeling towards them.