This was first posted on Facebook on 18th November 2019, with support from my Ko-Fi network.
I have no idea which of these is most likely to happen in GE2019. But I’m pretty sure one of them will.
For the purposes of this scenario slicing: I’m assuming The Brexit Party Ltd wins no seats. It might, but I don’t think it will win *enough* to make any difference to the balance of power.
If on Friday 13th December we wake up to:
This was first posted on Facebook on 19th August 2019, and posted here with support from my Ko-Fi network.
At the moment, Boris Johnson has 311 MPs.
He also has, for now, 10 DUP MPs.
As a practical matter of fact, while officially a majority in the HoC is 326 (650/2 +1) in actuality it’s 322 ((650 – (7 Sinn Féin MPs + 1 Speaker)/2).
For the purpose of this blogpost, I’m going to suppose that I might be a Conservative Prime Minister.
By heritage and upbringing, I am a natural Labour voter: I’m a trade union member, my dad was a trade union member, his dad was a trade union member, and so on back to my great-grandfather: further than that family legend can’t tell me.
Further, since the Tories imposed the poll tax on Scotland, if not before, I’ve always been clear that I would not only never vote Tory, in FPTP elections I’d always vote for the even-slightly-leftier candidate with the best chance of beating the Tory.
So hold my hand: this is a big jump.
There are four ways the UK can go from here with regard to Brexit, and all of them are bad. Read the first and second directions: hard Brexit, or no deal, soft Brexit, or the EU’s deal.
There is no good way to do Brexit: there is only a choice between catastrophe and different flavours of disaster.
Third: Another EU referendum
The consistent argument of MPs and others against stopping Brexit – even now when it’s clear that hard Brexit is catastrophic and soft Brexit is not going to benefit the UK in any measurable way – is that a majority who voted in the EU referendum, voted to Leave the EU, so they have no choice: the UK government must obey the will of the people and the UK must Brexit.
But what if the UK ran the EU referendum again?
“Guess what we’re doing on 8th June 2017?” I asked.
“I dunno,” said the love of my life, busy with her coursework.
“Having a general election.”
Theresa May today announced (following a cabinet meeting) that she would hold a “snap general election” on 8th June 2017.
If you want to read her claimed reasons for doing so, her full statement is available.
Why I think you should contact your MP to ask them to vote against Theresa May’s Article 50 bill – whether your MP is pro or anti Brexit.
Theresa May claimed as Crown Prerogative the right to invoke Article 50 and take the UK out of the EU without consulting Parliament.
The Supreme Court has ruled, as matter of constitutional law, that she’s wrong: Parliament is sovereign, and only Parliament can take the UK out of the EU.
So Theresa May has had written a very short bill which will by Parliamentary vote give her the right to invoke Article 50 without further consultation.
Way to miss the point, Prime Minister.
This is the full text of the bill Theresa May has published today, two days after the Supreme Court ruled she couldn’t just use her Crown prerogatives to invoke Article 50:
Confer power on the Prime Minister to notify, under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, the United Kingdom’s intention to withdraw from the EU.
Filed under Brexit, Politics
“Does anyone know why the UK is leaving the EU?” someone asked.
This was my answer:
From where I’m sitting, the UK is leaving the EU because, in no particular order: