The candidates on 3rd May were:
- Chas Booth: Scottish Green Party
- Irvine Wallace McMinn: Liberal Party in Scotland
- Adam McVey: Scottish National Party
- Rob Munn: Scottish National Party
- Gordon Munro: Scottish Labour Party
- Nicola Ross: Scottish Conservative and Unionist
- Marjorie Thomas: Scottish Liberal Democrats
The incumbents were Munn (SNP), Munro (Labour), Thomas (LibDem). The turnout last time was 8,391 out of 16,178. The 2012 results are all on Edinburgh Council Elections, Ward 13 – Leith.
So on 3rd May at noon I made seven predictions. How well did I do? Under the cut.
Prediction One: Turnout’s going to be much lower. I’d say 5000.
Yeah – it was 6,384 votes cast out of a possible 16,972 (Turnout: 37.6%) so lower, but not as bad as I’d feared. Half a point.
Prediction Two (easy): Irvine McMinn will be eliminated in the first round.
Yes. McMinn got 71 first-preference votes (and 14 transfers from Gordon Munro’s surplus) and was eliminated first round. Point to me.
Prediction Three: Nicola Ross will be eliminated in the second round.
Yes. Ross got 405 first-preference votes (and 27 transfers from Munro and McMinn). Point to me.
Prediction Four: Marjorie Thomas will be eliminated in the third round.
Yes. Thomas got 565 first-preference votes (and about 261 transfers). Point to me.
Prediction Five: Adam McVey will be eliminated in the fourth round. I don’t think the SNP plan of standing two candidates is going to work nearly as well as they think it will.
Totally wrong about Adam McVey. But I was right that the SNP idea of standing two candidates at once was going to backfire. Counting the first preference votes by party, the SNP got 27.8% and Labour got 27.2%, suggesting strongly that Rob Munn didn’t get re-elected pretty much just because the SNP decided to have two candidates. Half a point. (Also Steve Cardownie, nearly.)
Also am slightly amused that the SNP leaflet instructing SNP voters to give their first preference to McVey and their second preference to Munn does seem to have influenced the SNP vote… and meant Munn lost.
Prediction Six: At least one of the last candidates standing in Leith isn’t going to make quota.
Surprisingly, no! Gordon Munro made quota (1566 votes) in the first round: Chas Booth by the fourth round: and Adam McVey made quota with transfers from Rob Munn in the seventh round. No point.
Prediction Seven: Edinburgh Council will have 5 – 7 women as councillors
I was feeling rather depressed (all predictions were saying the SNP were going to do well, and if they had…) but I am delighted to be wrong… though I could wish to have been much wronger. The number of women on Edinburgh Council is still 15, just as it has been since 2008. Minus one point.
But I’m going to give myself an extra point for figuring out that the end result was going to be Labour, Scottish Green, and SNP, about 28 hours before the electoral computers processed the count. Four points out of seven. I win. (Yes, okay, I was awarding the points. What? I was totally fair.)
I’d be interested to link to any one else’s predictions / results in the Scottish council elections. Comment here if you did and you want to share.