Predictions for Leith Ward

Although I’ve been campaigning for Gordon Murdie, I can’t vote for him (Though I would put him first preference if I could.) Southside/Newington is a ward where I don’t think any prediction is possible – not even by looking at what happened last time.

Whereas in my own ward (ward 13, Leith) I think I can make predictions. There are 7 candidates standing, and 3 seats. The incumbents are Munn (SNP), Munro (Labour), Thomas (LibDem).

  • Chas Booth: Scottish Green Party
  • Irvine Wallace McMinn: Liberal Party in Scotland
  • Adam McVey: Scottish National Party
  • Rob Munn: Scottish National Party
  • Gordon Munro: Scottish Labour Party
  • Nicola Ross: Scottish Conservative and Unionist
  • Marjorie Thomas: Scottish Liberal Democrats

Turnout last time was 8,391 out of 16,178. Four candidates must be eliminated and three will get seats. What’s my predictions?

North Leith Parish Church on Polling Day Vote2012


Prediction One: Turnout’s going to be much lower. I’d say 5000.

Prediction Two (easy): Irvine McMinn will be eliminated in the first round. The Liberal Party haven’t campaigned in Scotland. I know McMinn’s name because I made an effort to find out the names of all the candidates, but I’ve had no leaflet through the door, seen nothing online, have found nothing on the Liberal Party’s website.

Prediction Three: Nicola Ross will be eliminated in the second round. People just don’t vote Tory in Leith.

Prediction Four: Marjorie Thomas will be eliminated in the third round. The LibDems have a triple fail to contend with – their party’s association with the Tories both UK-wide and in Edinburgh Council (LibDems and Tories voted together for privatisation): the attempted privatisation of services: and of course the trams – though they’re hardly the only offenders, they have been in the lead and crashed with the project.

Prediction Five: Adam McVey will be eliminated in the fourth round. I don’t think the SNP plan of standing two candidates is going to work nearly as well as they think it will.

Prediction Six: At least one of the last candidates standing in Leith isn’t going to make quota. I’ve been massively unimpressed by pretty much all of them.

Prediction Seven: Edinburgh Council will have 5 – 7 women as councillors at the end of the count tomorrow.

Whatever you do: Vote.

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3 Comments

Filed under Elections, Scottish Politics

3 responses to “Predictions for Leith Ward

  1. Fiona Menzies

    We should have had a bet on the turn out I going for 27% may be too optimistic? There is something very wrong with all of this.

    • We should have had a bet on the turnout! It’s been as low as the 25-ish for European elections – but of course no one really knows how this works for council elections yet…

      There’s something wrong with this on so many levels.

  2. Pingback: Leith Ward – Results | Edinburgh Eye

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